How to Lose Your Genius Status

Here is a sure fire way to lose your genius status.

http://www.livescience.com/9008-marijuana-suppresses-immune-system.html

Oil Ready for a Fall?

Over the next sixty days the oil market sells off on average 5%.  This gives us a tremendous trading edge.  We think that sell off started on Wednesday Night, and we plan to trade oil short until Thanksgiving.

The oil market has sold off every fall except one since 2007, and based on the market structure of the oil market looking out one year tells us speculators are now losing money holding oil off of the market.  All of the land storage facilities around the world are at max capacity, and oil is being stored on ships.  Storing oil on ships is very expensive.  The price of oil one year later needs to be $10 higher to allow that trade to work.  Right now it is up only $4.  This is a recipe for disaster and oil needs to fall to $45-$6 to allow that trade to work again.

In fact, we just read that Nigeria is the first to concede this fact, and have dropped their price a dollar below spot.  Others will follow.  Also, the U.S. shale producers have just locked in a great deal of their production for next year at $15 over their costs.  That means we will be producing flat out for the next six months.

We are recommending some very good trades that will net our subscriber 15-20% over the next two months.  Get to know us a little better, watch our nightly videos, sign up for training on how to trade, and what to trade, get our insights into the month ahead, based on empirical data that generates profits, and sign up for our trade signals.  Trade genius web page

Ag Stocks Update

Please enjoy my video on all the AG ETF's.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJJp0rMpz-M&ab_channel=TradeGenius

A Start of Something Bigger?

Well after 5-6 Fed Governors telling us, yes are really going to raise rates this time, the market took notice.  I guess the first tell was the Wednesday Biotech ambush, then the early rise then sell off on Thursday, and then of course the attack again today.

Right now I think the market must take Yellen at her word for a September rate increase, and for me that means more selling.  I noted my thoughts on the charts below on entries.  For sure I will steer clear of Biotech now through the election, and oil is soon to slip out of its buy window, so watching price and price levels to reenter long or not.

For me, 3-5% correction is not out of the question, and looking at volume areas 2128-2138 is the next area of interest, and 2104 is the top of the value area.  Then 2053-2080, 1957, and 1914.  so I will cool my heels some for a few weeks.  Tactically, we are playing defense on Monday unless 2177.65 is taken out.  I will adjust as necessary.

Gold and the miners are still trying to get a breakout but was rejected.  It was interesting that gold didn't sell off with the market though, so hopeful that we rotate.

For volatility, the trade to short overbought is still on the table, but there was four higher highs in the past seven days so it gives me pause.  The good news is out of these panic episodes if we get one are very profitable shorting opportunities.

Our NADEX EOD trades signal has been perfect for six straight weeks (30 trades).  We had two days of loss, first was me rushing the trade, the second was me taking a second trade after we won (Stupid, greed kills with NADEX), the tie was me panicking.  Overall, my expectations are you to double every six weeks starting with $500, trading 1 contract per $250 of capital.  Our goal is to create a $5000 account within a year.  Our rules and my NADEX booklet are on our website Trade Genius.

I will do a separate post on the Ag's, and my update on results, as well.

Enjoy the charts.

China is Drowning

China is getting utterly inundated with rain.  The most in 20 years.  This was predictable as this happens after every El Nino event as strong as we had.  What follows is a blow up in grain prices. They have been subdued due to  record stockpiles around the world, but that is ending.

Four  of the 7 biggest producers of grain worldwide are having massive shortfalls, and the world is slow to pick up on it.  We are and will continue to buy grains; Wheat and Corn.

35% of China's corn production is now under water or in saturated ground.  50% of France's wheat harvest is gone, and Brazil's corn crop suffered 25% losses.  We have look out the backyard bias in the U.S.,  but any inkling of a shortfall here will send prices skyward.  But, at any rate prices will rise from here, and there is little the Federal Reserve can do to stop it, as China and Brazil must import grains to keep their population and livestock's fed.

French wheat crop to fall even more than thought

French wheat production will fall even steeply more this year than many had forecast, according to the results of a crop tour by Paris-based consultancy Agritel. In its first forecast for the coming harvest in the EU's top wheat grower, Agritel pegged expectations at 37.26m tonnes, a fall of 9.2% year on year European grain industry group Coceral last week forecast the French wheat crop at 38.87m tonnes.  Last month the French agricultural consultancy Strategie Grains forecast French wheat production at 38.5m tonnes, while ODA last month saw the French crop at 36.5m-38.5m tonnes.  An Agritel analyst told Agrimoney the forecast was based on the results of a crop tour in late June, and could be revised later in the season to take in further weather developments. The group also noted "disappointing" early results, in quality and yield terms, from France's harvest of barley, which having a shorter growing season than wheat is reaped earlier.

All Systems Go on Ag's

Hot Weather and Dry soil makes for Shriveled Corn

We are about to repeat a pattern in the U.S. Midwest that Brazil just completed.  Hot and dry weather in the corn belt on top of dry soil moisture.  Brazil went from a major exporter to an importer and a crop estimate that has now fallen 25%.  They expected a near record crop, just like us.

This is from my friends over at Weathertrends360.  I encourage everyone to follow them on FaceBook.  They will save you from financial hardship.


The parallels to what happened in Brazil are eerily similar. The simple math suggests the sum of the parts don't add up to these rosy USDA guesstimates. TX and Deep South crops getting fried, MI fried, N IN - OH has issues, W KY - S IN too wet. 4-weeks of heat/drought like stress in WCB in June and now dome of death coming and likely to stick around for a few weeks starting next week. It's been a weather market all year and only going to get worse. Eventually real data like this will come to light.

Here is his soil Moisture chart.

Here are the weather trends for the Midwest. Both the U.S. and the Euro models agree.

https://www.facebook.com/weathertrends360/videos/1232002913479240/

This should move corn and wheat higher.