We are about to repeat a pattern in the U.S. Midwest that Brazil just completed. Hot and dry weather in the corn belt on top of dry soil moisture. Brazil went from a major exporter to an importer and a crop estimate that has now fallen 25%. They expected a near record crop, just like us.
This is from my friends over at Weathertrends360. I encourage everyone to follow them on FaceBook. They will save you from financial hardship.
The parallels to what happened in Brazil are eerily similar. The simple math suggests the sum of the parts don't add up to these rosy USDA guesstimates. TX and Deep South crops getting fried, MI fried, N IN - OH has issues, W KY - S IN too wet. 4-weeks of heat/drought like stress in WCB in June and now dome of death coming and likely to stick around for a few weeks starting next week. It's been a weather market all year and only going to get worse. Eventually real data like this will come to light.
Here is his soil Moisture chart.
Here are the weather trends for the Midwest. Both the U.S. and the Euro models agree.
This should move corn and wheat higher.