Friday, August 26, 2016

A Start of Something Bigger?

Well after 5-6 Fed Governors telling us, yes are really going to raise rates this time, the market took notice.  I guess the first tell was the Wednesday Biotech ambush, then the early rise then sell off on Thursday, and then of course the attack again today.

Right now I think the market must take Yellen at her word for a September rate increase, and for me that means more selling.  I noted my thoughts on the charts below on entries.  For sure I will steer clear of Biotech now through the election, and oil is soon to slip out of its buy window, so watching price and price levels to reenter long or not.

For me, 3-5% correction is not out of the question, and looking at volume areas 2128-2138 is the next area of interest, and 2104 is the top of the value area.  Then 2053-2080, 1957, and 1914.  so I will cool my heels some for a few weeks.  Tactically, we are playing defense on Monday unless 2177.65 is taken out.  I will adjust as necessary.

Gold and the miners are still trying to get a breakout but was rejected.  It was interesting that gold didn't sell off with the market though, so hopeful that we rotate.

For volatility, the trade to short overbought is still on the table, but there was four higher highs in the past seven days so it gives me pause.  The good news is out of these panic episodes if we get one are very profitable shorting opportunities.

Our NADEX EOD trades signal has been perfect for six straight weeks (30 trades).  We had two days of loss, first was me rushing the trade, the second was me taking a second trade after we won (Stupid, greed kills with NADEX), the tie was me panicking.  Overall, my expectations are you to double every six weeks starting with $500, trading 1 contract per $250 of capital.  Our goal is to create a $5000 account within a year.  Our rules and my NADEX booklet are on our website Trade Genius.

I will do a separate post on the Ag's, and my update on results, as well.

Enjoy the charts.

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