Wednesday, June 29, 2016

Climate's Gone Crazy

Please read below.  The solar minimum is here and it will be disruptive.  Buy food ETF's, and stock up.  It will get nasty.

From Paul Beckwith's Twitter feed
"Our  climate system behavior continues to behave in new and scary ways that we have never anticipated, or seen before."
This scary stuff.  I am sure it happened last solar minimum tto, but we had no way of knowing it.

From a mainstream Aussie Newspaper

The sun has gone blank twice this month. This is what it means

YOU may not have noticed but our sun has gone as blank as a cue ball. As in, it’s lost its spots.
According to scientists, this unsettling phenomenon is a sign we are heading for a mini ice age.
Meteorologist and renowned sun-watcher Paul Dorian raised the alarm in his latest report, which has sparked a mild panic about an impending Game of Thrones-style winter not seen since the 17th century.

Sunday, June 26, 2016

And more bad news for Brazil.

Glass half full... is an orange juice shortage on the cards? (From Agrimoney site)
Brazilian orange juice production and exports will drop sharply to 26-year lows, due to widespread heat damage to the crop, US officials said.
The USDA's Sao Paolo bureau slashed its ideas of production in the world's largest orange juice exporter, citing hot dry weather last year.
"The Sao Paulo [state] commercial citrus belt was negatively affected by usually hot temperatures during fruit setting," the bureau said.

Significant damage
The Brazilian orange crop over the year to July 2017 is forecast at 351.7m 40.8 kilograms boxes, down 14% from the previous crop.
The bureau cited "weather-related problems during blossoming and fruit setting".
"In spite of the good and steady blossoming from late August through October, the higher than normal temperatures during September and October significantly damaged fruit setting, thus reducing production potential," said the bureau.

It looks like there is a potential $10K per contract possible over the next year, and this La Nina is scheduled to be the worst on record. 

Problems can be profits if you know where to look.  Let us help you

Brazilian Corn in Trouble

US officials cut Brazil corn hopes - and warn of further downgrades  (From Agrimoney's site)
Brazil's corn imports will soar five-fold to a 16-year high, thanks to the supply squeeze prompted by a disappointing safrinha crop, US officials said, cutting their harvest forecast and flagging "great challenges" for livestock farmers.
Brazil, better known as the second-ranked corn exporter, will see its imports swell from 330,000 tonnes last season to 1.5m tonnes in 2015-16, the US Department of Agriculture's Brasilia bureau said, the kind of volumes more typically bought by the likes of Egypt, Israel or Turkey.
Imports at that level would be the biggest since 1999-2000, besides being ahead of the 1.1m tonnes that the USDA has officially forecast, and the 1.0m tonnes expected by Conab, Brazil's own crop bureau.
The raised estimate reflected a weaker forecast for Brazilian corn production, which the bureau pegged at 75.0m tonnes, below the USDA's official 77.5m-tonne figure, and the 76.2m tonnes expected by Conab.

First the French, German and Argentinians take a big hit on their Wheat crop.  Then the Chinese soft wheat crop estimates drop to as high as a 30% loss.  
See my video here.

Now the Brazilians, reeling from weak sugar and Coffee harvests are dealing with their corn crops.  They will swing from a net exporter to a net importer this year, and to make matters worse they will have a livestock deficit, as well.

This is La Nina, and it is just getting started.

CORN is cheap here, and it is not going to get any cheaper.  Bottom is already in.  The risk/reward is spectacular.  We have many other great set ups.  We are already over 100% for the year, and the second half will prove to be most profitable.
Join us at
Enjoy the chart.

Wednesday, June 22, 2016


 PRINTABLE VERSION    EMAIL TO A FRIEND    RSS FEEDS17:41 UK, 16th Jun 2016, by William Clarke and Mike Verdin
'Exceptionally wet month' cuts hopes for French, German wheat

Strategie Grains cautioned over potential hiccups to European Union wheat exports to key markets as, citing an "exceptionally wet month", it cut French and German production forecasts, and warned over quality too.
The consultancy cut by a combined 1.3m tonnes its forecast for the soft wheat harvests in France, the EU's top producing country, and in second-ranked Germany, citing poor weather.
"After an exceptionally wet month of May with much less sunshine than normal… we have reduced our yield estimates for the winter cereals in the affected regions of France and Germany," Strategie Grains said.
Separately, rival consultancy Agritel said that "in France and in Europe globally, rains are still heavily present, increasing the disease concern".

China Rain Seen Damaging Crop Output, Quality

JUNE 21, 2016 06:31 AM
China’s wheat may face being downgraded to feed quality and output could drop to a five-year low after persistent rain damaged crops in the world’s top producer and consumer, according to analysts.
Higher-than-normal rainfall in April and May soaked crops in the provinces of Jiangsu, Anhui and Hubei, analysts at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. and Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd. said. Heavy rain last month also damaged crops being harvested in parts of Henan, the country’s top wheat grower, the analysts said.
“Yields this year may be the worst in many years, as well as quality,” said Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Orient. Heavy rains in March and April, coupled with higher-than-normal temperatures, also caused widespread disease in Jiangsu and Anhui, the country’s soft-wheat growing region, he said.
China’s winter wheat harvest, which accounts for more than 90 percent of total output, is set to finish this month. About 10 million metric tons could be downgraded to feed use and output in the 2016-17 season may fall to a five-year low of 107 million tons, said Shi Wei, an analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence. China harvested a total of 130 million tons of wheat last year, up 3.2 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics.
The strong El Nino weather event, which ended last month, caused more frequent rainfall in spring, including 16 rounds of heavy rains in April and May, Zhou Bing, an official at China’s National Climate Center said at a press conference earlier this month. China’s agriculture ministry said this month that it was expecting a bumper wheat harvest, without giving a production forecast.

A quote from a farmer

 3 weeks of 85-95 temps daily and no rain. Corn is rolling daily! We had 11" of rain from April 17th to May 30th. Planted corn in terrible conditions. Look at drought monitor map from last week. Then compare it to this week. Wow! Some of the highest producing areas of the corn belt show abnormal dryness. Area doubled in size. This is how droughts start. Quickly! Maybe Captain Kirk Weather Trends 360 knows what he is talking about. So far he is scary accurate.

USDA is Absolutely Delusional on the State of the Corn Crop!

This blog is for the thousands of farmers in panic mode because the USDA is completely delusional on the health of the corn crop sending prices in a tail spin. First...STAY CALM...never do anything in a panic and don't sell the farm...prices will soar in the weeks ahead.

Second - the US GFS short range model has way over forecast cool and wet all June long and we're ending up with the hottest June in 22 years across the Corn Belt and rainfall 51% below average for the first 3 weeks so PLEASE DON'T BITE ON THE COLDER/WETTER PATTERN - very unlikely - and the Euro model agrees.

Third - we bought MORE Sept and Dec call options as there is little doubt we're headed for a scorching hot/dry Summer.

Let's go back to this date in 2012...the weather pattern is eerily similar as is the USDA's nonsense. At this point in the 2012 season all was good per USDA despite a hot/dry June and Corn prices were down 14% year-to-date as of middle June 2012. Here we go again!!!! Then we had the hottest/driest July in decades...wt360 projects the 2nd hottest/driest only to 2012 so hang in there...the rally will almost certainly explode in July!BLOG 1