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PRINTABLE VERSION    EMAIL TO A FRIEND    RSS FEEDS 17:41 UK, 16th Jun 2016, by William Clarke and Mike Verdin

'Exceptionally wet month' cuts hopes for French, German wheat

Strategie Grains cautioned over potential hiccups to European Union wheat exports to key markets as, citing an "exceptionally wet month", it cut French and German production forecasts, and warned over quality too. The consultancy cut by a combined 1.3m tonnes its forecast for the soft wheat harvests in France, the EU's top producing country, and in second-ranked Germany, citing poor weather. "After an exceptionally wet month of May with much less sunshine than normal… we have reduced our yield estimates for the winter cereals in the affected regions of France and Germany," Strategie Grains said. Separately, rival consultancy Agritel said that "in France and in Europe globally, rains are still heavily present, increasing the disease concern". China Rain Seen Damaging Crop Output, Quality JUNE 21, 2016 06:31 AM By Bloomberg Email China’s wheat may face being downgraded to feed quality and output could drop to a five-year low after persistent rain damaged crops in the world’s top producer and consumer, according to analysts. Higher-than-normal rainfall in April and May soaked crops in the provinces of Jiangsu, Anhui and Hubei, analysts at Shanghai JC Intelligence Co. and Beijing Orient Agribusiness Consultant Ltd. said. Heavy rain last month also damaged crops being harvested in parts of Henan, the country’s top wheat grower, the analysts said. “Yields this year may be the worst in many years, as well as quality,” said Ma Wenfeng, an analyst with Beijing Orient. Heavy rains in March and April, coupled with higher-than-normal temperatures, also caused widespread disease in Jiangsu and Anhui, the country’s soft-wheat growing region, he said. China’s winter wheat harvest, which accounts for more than 90 percent of total output, is set to finish this month. About 10 million metric tons could be downgraded to feed use and output in the 2016-17 season may fall to a five-year low of 107 million tons, said Shi Wei, an analyst with Shanghai JC Intelligence. China harvested a total of 130 million tons of wheat last year, up 3.2 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. The strong El Nino weather event, which ended last month, caused more frequent rainfall in spring, including 16 rounds of heavy rains in April and May, Zhou Bing, an official at China’s National Climate Center said at a press conference earlier this month. China’s agriculture ministry said this month that it was expecting a bumper wheat harvest, without giving a production forecast. A quote from a farmer  3 weeks of 85-95 temps daily and no rain. Corn is rolling daily! We had 11" of rain from April 17th to May 30th. Planted corn in terrible conditions. Look at drought monitor map from last week. Then compare it to this week. Wow! Some of the highest producing areas of the corn belt show abnormal dryness. Area doubled in size. This is how droughts start. Quickly! Maybe Captain Kirk Weather Trends 360 knows what he is talking about. So far he is scary accurate. USDA is Absolutely Delusional on the State of the Corn Crop! June 21st, 2016 | wt360 This blog is for the thousands of farmers in panic mode because the USDA is completely delusional on the health of the corn crop sending prices in a tail spin. First...STAY CALM...never do anything in a panic and don't sell the farm...prices will soar in the weeks ahead. Second - the US GFS short range model has way over forecast cool and wet all June long and we're ending up with the hottest June in 22 years across the Corn Belt and rainfall 51% below average for the first 3 weeks so PLEASE DON'T BITE ON THE COLDER/WETTER PATTERN - very unlikely - and the Euro model agrees. Third - we bought MORE Sept and Dec call options as there is little doubt we're headed for a scorching hot/dry Summer. Let's go back to this date in 2012...the weather pattern is eerily similar as is the USDA's nonsense. At this point in the 2012 season all was good per USDA despite a hot/dry June and Corn prices were down 14% year-to-date as of middle June 2012. Here we go again!!!! Then we had the hottest/driest July in decades...wt360 projects the 2nd hottest/driest only to 2012 so hang in there...the rally will almost certainly explode in July!

It Continues

This is the Black Swan.  The weather has begun to affect food production worldwide.  This is the news in just the last two weeks.

In South America, their harvests have been affected by cool, rainy weather.

In India, it is drought,

In Africa, drought.

China's wheat growing regions is under snow (8 inches this week), their rice growing region is under cool, rainy weather, and their corn region is, as well.

The United States is not immune either.  Late snow hit the Maine and the Idaho potato regions, Continual rainfall is hitting the upper Ohio valley, allowing only 8% of the corn crop to be put into the ground, and in the Midwest hail storms last week destroyed 10's of thousands of acres of corn and wheat.

Now the U.S. government can no longer hide this fact and are calling for falling temps for the back half of the year, and this might be the biggest La Nina on record.  About time they are catching up.

I discussed The reasons why are in a ebook I wrote on this very subject.  It is free, and it will help you survive and thrive in this coming decade.

My website , Just scroll down and request it.


Back to the black swan; rising food prices ties the Central Bankers hands as their only game is devaluation and you can't devalue when importing food during a deficit will kill your economy and/or your populations will starve.  Remember the 2008 rice scare, and the 2011 Arab Spring?  That is coming to nearly every country from now through the coming decade.  Buy Ag ETF's to hedge these events.  Don't be like this guy.

Best Stock Sector to Buy in June

Starting next week it is time to think about the trades for June, and the research I have compiled tells me that June is a relatively weak month (Second worst) and that there is only one sector that is green.
That sector is utilities.  Specifically XLU.  The good news is XLU is now pulling back, and will give us good entry point over the next couple of days.

Just Wow - World Famine Watch on the table?

Maine's potato crop is in jeopardy as a late spring snowstorm is hitting Northern Maine.  A record snowstorm, on top of a record year, on top of three prior record setting years.

La Nina Pattern is intact

 The world will not be immuned

 Hail crushing the grains in the Midwest last week

A Really Disruptive Technology

This is really cool, and in my view a game changer on the level of the internet.  It intersects, rapid and cheap prototyping, innovation at the local level, domestic production, mass customization, and just in time delivery.

It is called the factory in the home:  I believe this is the first of many automated, turnkey and cheap factories/concepts that will spring up in our country.  The company is called Other Machine Company and they developed the factory in the garage. It is called The Other Mill.

Other Machine Company



They created an integrated fabricator with incredible tolerances. I'll let them sell themselves, but between robotic automation, Additive Manufacturing, Maker Marts, and the factory in the box, innovation will flourish.

From a stock trading perspective these events strengthens my view on a Strong dollar, and a weak and failing China.

Food for Thought

We are going into the second weakest period of the year.  There is some short term and long term precedent here for a nice sell off.

Sectors to Buy or Sell in May

May is a transition month for the markets.  Early is benign, and later in the month stocks struggle, and June is worse.  I would be looking to trim positions here, especially after the gift we received since February.

Also for the gold and silver bugs; May is neutral but June is down.

I created a video walking through all of the sectors.  Enjoy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SW6OkJfJ2RI&ab_channel=TradeGenius