It Begins

El Nino is rapidly turning into La Nina, and it will affect grain prices.  Usually we see prices  move closer to June, but the weather is already setting up.  Next week a Polar Vortex is rolling through the Midwest, and Canada, and Canada is already reporting a significantly reduced crop and with a warm February/March the wheat crop is sprouting.  A freeze will be devastating.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/fresh-round-cold-snow-rain-unsettled-weather-west/56286017

http://www.agweb.com/article/canada-reduces-wheat-output-forecast-as-weather-hurts-crops/

Ag Commodity Update

Enjoy, CORN and SOYB have not made a higher high yet, so not yet charting buy/Sell signals.  This is where the long action will be this year.  50% plus return on all of these highly likely.  Swing trades, so hold for weeks at a time.  Subscribe and you will get them real time.

Weekend Report

Rejection

A Decision Has Been Made

It sure appears that front running the Fed's March meeting is the play.  for me that means I drop my short positions, take the loss and go long high beta (LABU), and oil (UWTI).  I will also buy some DUST as risk on means slam gold.

I will continue to monitor DAG, as well.  I will post entries and stops for my subscribers via Twitter.

Hard Resistance?

Last week was a tough one for me.  My father passed away and they live 3000 miles away.  So I was distracted from the markets  a bit.  But I am now back.

I went short on Tuesday day, after riding the reversal for three days.  I left those trades on, those being SDS, TVIX, and SRS.  The week after OPEX is usually weak.

Strategically:

Two things are going to happen; either we (the market) decides to front run the Federal Reserve anticipating them folding and blast through 195, or force the Fed to fold by driving the market lower than 181.

I think a case can be made in either direction.

The short case says 194/5 can't be broken even with driving the most shorted to cover, oil shorts to cover, and vol longs to sell.  The Yen is breaking higher again, as well.

On the long side, Biotech is firming up, as well as Gold and the miners suggesting major liquidity is forthcoming.

Monday's have been red of late, and if so I will set stops on my shorts, if Green I will take my losses and wait for a better setup and go long LABU.

I am also interested in taking another run at DUST

I added DAG to my watch-list as I think food prices will run with any new liquidity injected into the markets.